Global Demand for Potash Fertilizer Has Reached a Record High

Since the beginning of this year, the supply and demand in the international potash fertilizer market have been tight, and prices have risen. At the 2025 World Potash Conference and Golmud Salt Lake Forum - Potash Summit Forum held recently, industry insiders believed that the current global demand for potash fertilizer has reached a "record" level. In the future, its demand will continue to grow slowly, but with the increase in production capacity, it may enter a state of oversupply.

Alexander Chreky, a potash fertilizer analyst at the UK Commodity Research Institute, pointed out that in the first half of 2025, global demand for potassium chloride reached a record level and prices continued to rise. The current abundant supply of potassium chloride has restricted further price increases. Since May, the growth rate has slowed down and stabilized at $360 per ton CFR. It is expected that the international price of potassium chloride will drop slightly after September. He predicted that in the long term, a large amount of new production capacity would enter the market in the future, and potassium chloride would enter a state of oversupply.

Yao Huijun, a fertilizer analyst at Argus in the Asia-Pacific region, also pointed out that in the long term, the global supply of potassium sulfate may exceed the demand. On the one hand, there is currently a considerable amount of planned production capacity. On the other hand, China's export restrictions continue. According to her prediction, although the price of potassium sulfate will remain stable in the short term, it is likely to decline starting from the second half of this year. As for potassium nitrate, she said that the price of potassium nitrate has fluctuated and risen this year, but has recently stabilized. However, it will face pressure when going up in the future.

Hanna Chtioui, a market analyst at the International Fertilizer Association, said that the global potash fertilizer market is currently showing a strong recovery trend. In 2024, both production and export volumes will increase at a record rate, with potash fertilizer (calculated as potassium oxide) production reaching 48 million tons, a significant increase compared to 2022. The export volume reached 36 million tons, increasing by approximately 10% year-on-year.

In the next five years, the demand for potash fertilizer will continue to grow at a slow pace, with an annual growth rate of approximately 2%, exceeding the growth rate of demand for nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers. Hannah said that the main driving force for the growth in demand comes from Latin America and East Asia.